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The choices facing Putin in Belarus are all fraught with risk

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has been an extraordinary outlier in the monumental change that has swept through the former Soviet Union -- for 26 years, he's remained the pre-eminent figure in his impoverished country. Meanwhile, aging central Asian dictators have died or stepped aside, Russian President Vladimir Putin has weathered oligarchs, dissidents and sanctions, and neighboring Ukraine has seen two revolutions and a civil war.

source https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/16/europe/putin-lukashenko-belarus-analysis-intl/index.html